Poland’s top diplomat urges stepped-up NATO exercises near Kaliningrad to stretch Russian forces

Poland’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, has proposed that NATO intensify its military exercises around Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, arguing that a more assertive allied training posture could compel Moscow to redeploy units away from the war in Ukraine.

Speaking on Sept. 11 at a panel during the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv, Sikorski said the Kremlin has thinned its military presence in Kaliningrad, the territory bordering Poland and Lithuania, as its invasion of Ukraine continues. He stressed that the alliance should carry out no offensive action against the exclave, but suggested that a more frequent and demanding exercise rhythm on the allied side of the border would create uncertainty in Moscow about allied intentions.

“I’m suggesting we should exercise so aggressively on our side as to make [Russian President Vladimir Putin] uncertain of what we will do, and so that he needs to draw forces away from Ukraine,” Sikorski said, according to his remarks at the event.

He pointed to what he described as a markedly reduced Russian footprint in the region, noting that during a recent visit to a Polish tank company stationed in Latvia he observed few opposing forces across the border. He added that Polish monitoring of the exclave indicates “hardly any troops” present there.

The comments contrast with the region’s pre-war posture. A 2023 study by the U.S. Center for Naval Analyses recorded significant force buildups in Kaliningrad before February 2022, including the 11th Army Corps, whose composite ground units had a nominal strength of up to 18,000 personnel. By comparison, when Russia and Belarus prepared their “Zapad 2025” joint exercise last September, Lithuania’s Ministry of National Defence estimated that only “several thousand” troops would be stationed in Kaliningrad for the drill.

Poland’s broader posture

Sikorski’s proposal arrives as Poland prepares to host the first exercises of the so-called Coalition of the Willing alongside British and French forces. Separately, Warsaw is advancing its East Shield initiative, a program worth approximately 10 billion zloty (about $2.7 billion) to expand defensive infrastructure — including fortifications and terrain obstacles — along the roughly 800 km (497 miles) of border shared with Kaliningrad and Belarus.

The buildout has parallels across NATO’s eastern flank, where member states continue to invest in border hardening, munitions stockpiles and readiness programs — demand that supports the broader aerospace and defence industrial base, including smaller listed suppliers such as National Presto Industries (NYSE: NPK), whose defence and safety segment sits alongside its housewares business. The stock closed at $144.01, down 1.72% from a previous close of $146.52, valuing the company at roughly $1.06 billion.

Sikorski framed the proposal as part of a wider view of allied strategy: “We should not be thinking about our confrontation with Russia only as being confined to Ukraine,” he said.

What to watch

• Details and timing of the first Coalition of the Willing drills to be hosted in Poland, including the level of NATO institutional backing.
• Progress on East Shield fortification contracts along Poland’s eastern border and associated procurement announcements.
• Future Lithuanian and Polish assessments of force levels in the Kaliningrad exclave, particularly around major Russian and Belarusian exercises.
• NATO force-posture decisions on the eastern flank ahead of upcoming alliance summitry and national budget cycles.

Source: original release