Aftermarket showing ‘solid trend’ even as shop visits plateau: Safran chief

Olivier Andries highlights low aircraft retirement rate and high workscope.
Although French aerospace firm Safran believes aftermarket activity will remain strong, as airlines hold on to capacity, despite engine shop visits reaching a plateau.

Chief executive Olivier Andries, speaking during a third-quarter briefing on 23 October, stressed that the aftermarket “continues to show a solid trend” with “no deceleration” in spare parts sales.

Although there is a “softening” in air traffic growth, he says, “particularly in the widebody segment”, Andries points out that Safran is not as exposed to this sector as GE Aerospace, its partner in the CFM International venture.

“Airlines continue to rely on the fleet powered by CFM56 engines,” he states, adding that retirements “remain low” and aircraft storage rates are stable.

“This continued fleet activity supports demand for spare parts and services.”

Shop visits have reached 1,800 over the first nine months, putting the total for the year at around 2,400, and Andries says this figure has reached a “peak” and he expects the same volume next year.

He says the workscope during shop visits is “really elevated” compared with the last two years, and it “will remain at that level”.

“We do not expect that workscope to move up next year or to move down,” he states.

Chief financial officer Pascal Bantegnie says that the company has “not yet burned down [its] backlog despite an improvement we can see in material availability”.

Andries adds that the demand for shop visits still exceeds the available capacity.

“There are still more engine removals than engine induction in shops,” he says.

Andries puts the number of aircraft retirements so far this year at 130, less than 2%.

“We are looking very carefully at the retirement rate,” he says. “The good news is that it is still going to be low this year.”

He expects this rate will increase smoothly, but he believes airlines are “mindful to keep capacity” despite the current “complex environment’.

“They want to make sure that they protect their ability to fly and keep capacity, and therefore, are reluctant to reduce their capacity,” says Andries, adding that this gives the company confidence in its prospects for 2027-28.

He acknowledges that the retirement rate will increase, and that the demand for CFM56 parts “will sunset” at some point. But this will “coincide with the sunrise of Leap spare parts revenues”, he says.

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