2026 midterm cheat sheet: Which races to watch on defense 

WASHINGTON — The makeup of Congress could dramatically shift following midterm elections on Nov. 3, with polls currently projecting that Democrats will flip the House and could also take the Senate.

With that could come massive changes to the roster of defense advocates on Capitol Hill, as several longtime national security heavyweights — including the Senate’s top defense appropriator, Mitch McConnell — retire, while other defense committee leaders battle to keep their seats. 

Here are the three most consequential races to watch in the defense world, as well as a few other important ones we’ll be tracking on election night. 

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson

Maine’s senatorial race has been one of the most dramatic and hotly contested races of the midterms. Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC), is facing off against Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic challenger after Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner withdrew due to allegations of sexual misconduct. 

As SAC chairwoman, Collins is one of the most consequential deciders of the defense budget, having a key role in setting defense and nondefense topline spending levels. Before claiming the gavel, Collins led its defense subcommittee, where she advocated for higher defense budgets and aid for Ukraine. She was one of three Senate Republicans to vote against the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 

ProPublica recently reported that in 2024 the FBI intended to launch a pay-to-play investigation after a former defense contractor told the agency his company had donated to Collins’s political action committee in exchange for winning government contracts in Maine. Collins’s office has called the claims “categorically false.”  

According to OpenSecrets.Org, General Dynamics ranks fifth on the list of top organizations that donated to Collins’s campaign. (Although companies cannot directly donate to lawmakers campaigns, political action committees affiliated with corporations can. Open Secrets tallies both these donations and individual donations made by those affiliated with a corporation.)

Jackson — a fifth-generation logger — has not made national security issues a centerpiece of his campaign, but lists “No U.S. tax dollars to Israel’s military” as a priority policy on his website. 

Jackson has pledged not to take corporate donations for his campaign, but The Washington Post reported that he previously ran a PAC that accepted corporate money. Defense companies were not listed as donors in that report. 

Virginia: Rep. Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor

Rep. Rob Wittman, who currently sits as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s (HASC) Tactical Air and Land Subcommittee, is in line for the top GOP spot on HASC if he wins Virginia’s 1st District. That will require beating Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor, a prosecutor who has centered her campaign on anti-corruption and affordability, in what is shaping up to be a competitive race.

Wittman is highly influential on matters concerning the Air Force and Navy, having previously served as the head of HASC’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. He has championed higher defense spending and larger investments in low-cost attritable weaponry.

If the Democrats seize control of the House, Wittman is seen as the frontrunner to become HASC’s top Republican, should current chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., not seek a waiver to retain his place on the committee. (Under current House GOP rules, Republicans can only spend three consecutive terms as a committee’s chairperson or ranking member without seeking a waiver.)

However, Reps. Trent Kelly, who leads the seapower subcommittee, and Ronny Jackson, who leads the intelligence and special operations subcommittee, have also expressed interest in the top GOP spot.

The defense industry has been a major bankroller of Wittman’s campaign, with Lockheed Martin topping the list of donating organizations when both individual and political action committee donations are taken into account, according to data from Open Secrets. 

Taylor has pledged not to take money from corporate political action committees.

California: Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Rep. Young Kim

Redistricting could cost GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, his seat in the House, as he must win against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim in a battle for California’s 40th Congressional District. (There is no Democratic challenger in this race, as only the top two vote-getters advance from the primary to the general election.) 

As the top House defense appropriator, Calvert has endorsed higher defense spending, and has taken particular interest in efforts to increase defense manufacturing and boost Defense Department organizations aimed at bolstering innovation. 

Should Calvert emerge victorious in the midterms, he will need to seek a waiver to remain as HAC-D’s top Republican and has indicated he will do so. 

The defense industry has been a major spender on Calvert’s campaign this cycle, with General Electric and General Atomics both listed by Open Secrets in the top five donors by organization. Over the last quarter, two top Palantir executives —  CEO Alex Karp and Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar— donated a total of $900,000 to the Americans 4 Security super PAC that has financially backed Calvert, Punchbowl News reported earlier this month. 

Kim, who was first elected to Congress in 2020, does not sit on any of the congressional defense committees. However, she is a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee as the chairwoman of its East Asia and Pacific subcommittee. She is also a member of the House select committee on China. 

Defense companies do not make up a major portion of Kim’s campaign donors, according to Open Secrets data.

Other Races To Watch:

Rep. Adam Smith vs Doug Basler: Smith, HASC’s top Democrat, is expected to defeat Republican challenger Doug Basler for Washington’s 9th Congressional District. If Democrats take the House, Smith is set to once again become HASC chairman. 

Rep. Mike Rogers vs  Lee McInnis: The race between HASC Chairman Rogers and Democrat challenger Lee McInnis is not expected to be competitive, with Rogers slated to win in Alabama’s solidly Republican 3rd District. The big question is whether he seeks a waiver to stay on as HASC’s top Republican if he does.

Rep. Jen Kiggans vs former Rep. Elaine Luria: Kiggans, a Republican member of HASC, faces former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot, while Luria is a former naval officer who operated naval reactors onboard warships. Both are strong advocates for shipbuilding. 

Rep. Eugene Vindman vs Douglas Ollivant: Vindman, a Democrat, is a retired Army lieutenant colonel who currently serves on HASC. He seeks a second term representing Virginia’s 7th District in a fight against Republican Douglas Ollivant, also a former Army lieutenant colonel. Both list veterans’ issues as key priorities.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin: Kaptur, a Democratic defense appropriator, is battling Republican Derek Merrin, a former state representative, for Ohio’s 9th District. Kaptur has been in Congress since 1983, but her district — which was recently redrawn — now favors Republicans. 

Rep. David Valadao vs Randy Villegas: Valadao, a Republican on the defense appropriations subcommittee, faces a similar conundrum as Kaptur. California’s 22nd District was recently redrawn and is considered a tossup, with Valadao butting heads against Democrat Randy Villegas. 

Sen. Dan Sullivan vs former Rep. Mary Peltola: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, finds himself embroiled in a four-way race with a strange twist. Not only is he taking on former Rep. Mary Peltola, his Democratic challenger, he also faces an independent candidate who shares his name: former schoolteacher Dan J. Sullivan Jr. The Trump administration has sued to block the certification of the race if a Republican loses, citing name confusion.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed: Rogers, a Republican, is a former chairman of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He previously served as the representative for Michigan’s 8th District from 2001-2015. Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for one of Michigan’s Senate seats in one of the midterm’s most competitive races. 

And Say Goodbye To:

Several key congressional defense advocates have also chosen to retire or otherwise depart Capitol Hill at the end of 2026. Those include:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is currently chairman of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, but is probably best known as the longest-serving Senate party leader in US history. As SAC-D chair, he advocated for higher budgets and criticized the Defense Department’s use of reconciliation funding as an unsustainable way of boosting the topline.
• Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., holds multiple power positions on national security issues, including as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as membership on SASC and the Senate defense appropriations committee. As co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, she is one of Congress’s leading advocates for Ukraine. 
• Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., a defense appropriator who has previously held the gavel for the subcommittee. Durbin has been a vocal proponent of Ukraine aid.
• Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, a member of SASC and chairwoman of the Senate Small Business Committee. Ernst played a key role in Hegseth’s confirmation, as well as the the reauthorization of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.
• Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., is a SASC member who sits on several Senate appropriations subcommittees (although not on the defense subpanel).
• Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a former Air Force brigadier general who was a strong advocate for the service. He chairs HASC’s cyber and IT subcommittee, and has vocally criticized Trump’s policies on Ukraine and in Europe. 
• Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., is a Marine Corps veteran and currently the ranking Democrat on HASC’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee. Moulton ran for Senate and was defeated by incumbent Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary.
• Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a HASC member who was previously chair of the House Republican Conference. She will leave Congress this year after dropping out of New York’s gubernatorial race in 2025.