USAF needs blended-wing-body tanker for war against China: think tank
The Hudson Institute calls for substantial changes to the US Air Force tanker fleet.
The US Air Force’s (USAF’s) air-to-air refuelling capabilities have been pivotal to the USA’s projection of airpower, but a think tank suggests that major improvements are necessary for a potential conflict against China.
China’s investment in strike capabilities means that in a Pacific conflict, the existing USAF tanker fleet will have few sanctuaries and be forced to operate from distant bases, according to a new report from the Hudson Institute entitled Resilient Reach: Redesigning Aerial Refueling for Contested Global Operations.
Moreover, China’s investment in long-range anti-air weapons means existing tankers will need to operate at safe distances. This will require combat aircraft such as fighters to make long transits to receive fuel, reducing their effectiveness.
“Aerial refuelling is an unmatched United States military advantage, but it currently depends on vulnerable forward bases and medium-range tankers that could be neutralised,” says the report, authored by Timothy Walton and Shane Dennin.
“Suppression of this critical capability could collapse US air operations and heavily contribute to US defeat in a war against [China].”
One measure the USAF can take is expanding the number of airfields from which existing tankers, namely the Boeing KC-135 and KC-46A, can operate. Airfield infrastructure can also be hardened against Chinese attack.
Vulnerability exposed
The vulnerability of tankers and large aircraft on the ground was made clear during this year’s Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Despite being vastly overmatched, Tehran was able to strike American aircraft on the ground at regional bases once deemed sanctuaries.
Beijing is a far more capable foe, with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and Rocket Force able to launch strikes at significant ranges, threatening US basing locations as far away as Guam, Australia and even Hawaii. This capability is set to grow.
The report discusses various options for providing refuelling closer to China, including improving the command, control and communications (C3) capabilities of the existing tanker fleet to improve its survivability. Most strikingly, it calls for the development and procurement of “250 medium-sized, long-range, high-offload tankers” that can operate a “moderate distance from threats”.
The report’s authors envisage a blended-wing body (BWB) aircraft with outstanding fuel-consumption characteristics, which allows for both longer transit flights and greater offload capability.
In one table, Hudson suggests that such an aircraft would be able to offload 22,700kg (50,000lb) of fuel – enough to refuel four Lockheed Martin F-35As – at nearly 7,000nm (13,000km) from base. By comparison, the report contends that the maximum distance from base that an Airbus Defence & Space A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport can offload the same amount is just over 4,000nm, and the KC-46 at even less than this.
The report’s authors believe that a BWB aircraft offers the best potential for this. Their view emerges as the USAF walks back its ambitions for a next-generation tanker. Its acquisition head recently said that the service was unimpressed with industry proposals for a new tanker aircraft, which followed a 2025 solicitation from industry about a next-generation capability.
Demonstrator plan
Still, work on the technology is underway. In 2023, the USAF provided $235 million to JetZero to develop a BWB demonstrator with an aim to increase fuel efficiency by up to 25%. The company hopes to fly its Jet1 demonstrator aircraft by the end of 2027, with an airliner designated Z4 to enter service in the early 2030s.
“Aerial refuelling is essential to US military operations and is in high demand across the world,” adds the Hudson report.
“But too often it is also the limiting factor on the distribution, pace, and lethality of US campaigns. Worse still, as the KC-135 fleet continues to age and as adversaries field ways to neutralise US aerial refuelling on the ramp and in the air, this strategic advantage is increasingly a liability that could cause the United States to lose a war – especially against [China in] the Indo-Pacific.”
Hudson feels, however, that with sufficient budget the USAF has an opportunity to transform its air-to-air refuelling capabilities, and effectively address a range of contingencies, including a potential conflict with China.
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