How to Expand Reliable, Flexible Access to Space

The space industry launched more rockets into orbit last year than ever before, yet satellite operators are confronting an unexpected problem: There still aren’t enough rides to go around.

And increasingly, the shortage isn’t simply about the number of rockets.

Satellite companies want launches to more orbital destinations, with more regularity and aboard a wider range of vehicles. Instead, much of the industry has come to depend on a relatively small number of frequently launched rockets that often go to similar orbits. That’s left some companies and their spacecraft waiting months or years for a suitable ride.

“Demand is crazy,” said Robert Sproles, chief executive of Exolaunch, a Berlin-based broker of global launch services that has put 912 satellites into orbit during 51 separate launch events. “The demand curve is so much steeper than the supply curve.”

The squeeze comes despite a historic expansion in launch activity. Data from the FAA shows the agency licensed 187 launches in fiscal year 2026. That’s up from less than 100 a decade earlier and  governments are pushing for still more. The Trump administration has called for U.S. spaceports to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries annually by 2030.

But raw launch numbers obscure a problem that is becoming increasingly important as the space economy grows. A rocket going to the wrong orbit at the wrong time isn’t necessarily useful to a satellite operator.

All of that is turning choice, not just capacity, into one of the launch industry’s biggest constraints.

In order to truly close the gap between supply and demand, Sproles said, space transportation companies must also increase the diversity of available launches.

“Yes, we need to meet demand. But we also need to make sure we’re putting that demand in the right places,” he said. “We need to recognize what types of launches are best for what types of missions, and we need to make sure those types of launches are available when the launch customer needs them.”

Destination: Diversity

Market research firm Novaspace reports that the global space economy reached a valuation of $626 billion in 2025. Citing “consolidation, integration, and closer institutional alignment around security, resilience, and operational performance,” it forecasts annual growth of 5.5% through 2034 — at which point it predicts the global space economy will be worth over $1 trillion.

Markets that large are not monolithic, Sproles said, which means the industry needs multiple launch providers operating regularly across different orbital regimes.

“If you rewind to, say, 2016, there was more launch diversity in the market at that time than there is today. There was not more capacity, but there was a wider variety of vehicles that you could reliably gain access to,” Sproles said. The reasons for that decline in launch diversity includes changes in technology, geopolitics, and supply chains since the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which have led to the concentration of launch capacity in a small number of highly active launch providers.

But that variety is necessary, Sproles argues, because launch customers want to be able to optimize for when they can launch, where they need to go, and how much it will cost.

Consider the two most prolific launch providers today: SpaceX — whose Falcon 9 vehicle is optimized for large commercial constellations, human spaceflight, and heavy commercial rideshares — and Rocket Lab, whose Electron vehicle favors small satellites and CubeSats that require custom orbital planes.

“You could not come up with two more different vehicles both in terms of performance and commercial offerings, which just goes to show you that the industry is as hungry for choice as it is for capacity,” Sproles said.

Beyond Rideshare

In today’s launch market, rideshare services are a foundation of the space industry. “Rideshare is appropriate when your schedule is flexible enough to align with when a planned rideshare is launching, and when you have enough orbital wiggle room to go where the masses want to go,” Sproles said. “Basically, it makes sense when you have less rigid mission constraints.”

But as missions become more complex and bespoke, one size doesn’t fit all. Rideshare alternatives are needed, including shared launches — where launches are conceived from the outset with multiple customers in mind, instead of one customer’s mission piggybacking haphazardly onto another’s — and dedicated launches, wherein a customer procures an entire launch that’s customized to their unique schedule, destination, and payload, Sproles said

Exolaunch points to four planned missions that underscore the benefits of launch diversity:

• In 2027, the company will conduct a mid-inclination rideshare mission aboard Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ H3 rocket. It will be the company’s first launch from Japan.
• In late 2027 and 2028, respectively, Exolaunch will launch its Exo-1 and Exo-2 missions aboard two dedicated SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets procured exclusively for an anchor customer that in both instances will use approximately 40% of the launch vehicle; Exolaunch will sell the remaining 60% to other customers seeking a rideshare model. 
• In late 2028, Exolaunch will serve as the launch co-integrator for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity (GRACE-C) mission that is a joint effort of the German Space Agency’s German Aerospace Center (DLR) and NASA. The company will provide a custom structure with which to secure the mission’s payload inside a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that DLR and NASA had already secured for their launch; in return, DLR and NASA will allow it to provide the rocket’s unused capacity to other customers.

The first eight launches for Exolaunch in 2026 took place across four different launch vehicles from three continents. By securing capacity across a diverse portfolio of launch vehicles, inclinations, and spaceports, Sproles said, Exolaunch gives launch customers not only more predictable access to orbit, but also increased flexibility with regard to cost, schedule, and orbital destination.

‘We Need … Launchers to Launch’

Sproles ultimately envisions a future where customers can launch at any time and to any orbit without ever having to consider available launch vehicles or schedules — just as manufacturers in other industries can ship their products knowing that there’s always a container ship, train, or truck available to transport them.

“The ideal situation is that customers don’t have to think about what the vehicle is or when it’s going because there’s always an option to get to the desired orbit at the time when their satellite is manufactured,” Sproles said. 

That future is in the hands of launch companies. 

“We have multiple launch providers who have shown they can launch rockets. Now, we need those launchers to launch. We need them operating reliably at cadence, and we need them going to multiple orbits. They can do it. We just need them to execute.”