Canada facing ‘knife-edge timeline’ to replace Hornets as F-35 purchase remains in limbo
Final decision needed soon, as air force prepares for future beyond ‘increasingly operationally irrelevant’ CF-18 fleet.
Canada is in a race against time to modernise its air combat fleet, with the nation’s remaining Boeing CF-18 fourth-generation fighters heading towards retirement early next decade and uncertainty remaining about Ottawa’s full Hornet replacement plan.
Lockheed Martin formally handed over the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF’s) first two F-35As on 22 October, following the type’s selection to meet an expected 88-aircraft requirement. Those initial jets – numbers 35A001 and 002 – have been transferred to Luke AFB in Arizona, where they will be employed in support of pilot and maintainer training tasks.
The status of the full recapitalisation effort remains in limbo, however, amid an ongoing spat between the US and Canadian governments stoked by US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and expansionist ambitions towards Washington’s northern neighbour.
Rival offer
That has opened a potential opportunity for Swedish airframer Saab, which argues that a mixed fleet of F-35As and Gripen Es would deliver operational and affordability benefits for the RCAF. The company late last month detailed a proposed industrial partnership with Canadian companies including CAE, IMP and Magellan Aerospace, along with plans to establish an in-country final assembly line if selected.
While Canada was understood to have placed firm orders for its first 16 F-35As, an official speaking at the Defence iQ International Fighter Conference in Munich early this month told FlightGlobal: “We’re actually on record for 12 F-35s.
“It’s been erroneously reported in many news services as 16. It’s 12: four aircraft in [production] Lot 18, four in Lot 19 and four in Lot 20,” they said, speaking under the event’s Chatham House reporting rules. “And then we’ve got commitments on long-lead items on a subsequent 18.”
Ottawa’s lead F-35A recently arrived at Luke AFB in Arizona to support training activities. Source: US Air Force
Combined, those commitments span 30 of Ottawa’s intended 88 examples of the fifth-generation stealth fighter – it selected the US type in January 2023.
“Negotiations are going on – it’s very much an issue of the Canada-US trade discussions,” the official says, while stressing: “The F-35 handily won the future fighter capability competition – it is the preferred platform for Canada’s defence needs.”
The RCAF’s first frontline examples are due to be delivered to its Cold Lake base in Alberta during 2028, with its lead squadron planned to achieve initial operational capability the following year. Full operational capability is expected in 2032 or 2033, the source said.
With Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney holding the responsibility of determining the remainder of the future fighter deal, the official underlined the difficulties that they believe would stem from any potential split-buy decision.
Mixed feelings
“The mixed fleet discussion in Canada is particularly challenging for an air force with only 12,000 people that is on a knife-edge timeline to transition from a rapidly decaying CF-18 fleet to a new F-35 fleet,” they said. “To introduce a new transition point in there would be extremely challenging for our air force to execute.”
Having previously modernised the avionics on 88 of its CF-18A/Bs, Ottawa subsequently funded a Phase 2 upgrade to bring 36 of those jets to a standard capable of bridging the period until the type’s retirement, which at that time was pegged for 2032.
“We can squeeze no more [life] out of an airplane that is 40 to 45 years old and is achieving its end of life from a fatigue point of view and is also becoming increasingly operationally irrelevant,” the official said. “The F-18 is rapidly leaving service – we’re down to 71 CF-18s now from an initial buy of 138, and about five to six of them are retiring every year.
“By 2032 to 2033 there are none left in service, so we need to rapidly do the transition, build the infrastructure, develop the entire backbone necessary for fifth-generation operations, and then think about what our sixth-generation plan is in terms of ACPs [autonomous collaborative platforms] and a sixth-generation fighter such as [via] the GCAP [Global Combat Air Programme].”
Canada announced its intention to take observer status on GCAP – a joint effort between Italy, Japan and the UK – during the Farnborough air show in July, and that arrangement is about to be finalised.
“After 12 to 18 months of observing, our government will make a decision about whether to join that sixth-generation programme or not,” the official says.
BAE Systems and Bombardier signed a memorandum of understanding in late-October to collaborate on developing advanced air combat technologies.
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