Think Tank Urges US to Put China’s Carriers in Its Crosshairs

A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues that the United States and its Pacific allies should treat China’s expanding aircraft carrier fleet not just as a threat to counter, but as a vulnerability to exploit. The report, titled “Flip the Script,” recommends adopting some of the same anti-carrier approaches Beijing has long directed at the U.S. Navy.

A Reversal of Roles

For years, China has invested heavily in weapons designed to hold American carriers at risk, from ballistic missiles to submarines — even building a full-scale mockup of a U.S. carrier in a desert test range. CSIS argues that Chinese carriers are similarly exposed: they are high-value, difficult-to-replace assets that serve as both military tools and symbols of national prestige.

The report suggests that prestige may be a bigger driver of China’s carrier program than pure military necessity, comparing the effort to the Anglo-German naval race before the First World War. That symbolic weight, CSIS contends, makes the ships concentrated points of political and military risk for Beijing.

The Undersea Dimension

Central to the proposed approach is the undersea domain. CSIS envisions a combination of U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and quieter diesel-electric boats operated by allies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea creating a persistent threat around Chinese carrier groups. The goal, per the report, would be to compel Beijing to spend heavily on escorts, anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft, and fixed sensor networks simply to operate its carriers beyond home waters.

China currently operates three aircraft carriers, and a 2025 Pentagon report to Congress projected that the People’s Liberation Army Navy could field six more by 2035 — a pace that keeps undersea and long-range strike competition at the center of regional defense planning.

Industrial Context

The strategic debate lands amid steady demand across the defense industrial base. Among publicly traded suppliers, National Presto Industries (NPK) — which, alongside its housewares business, produces defense and safety products — traded at $144.01 in recent sessions, down 1.72% from its prior close of $146.52, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.06 billion. Companies in the sector continue to watch force-structure debates like this one, as they can shape long-term procurement priorities for submarines, munitions, and undersea sensors.

CSIS is careful to frame its argument as deterrence through symmetry: if Chinese planners must weigh the loss of a prestigious, hard-to-replace carrier the way U.S. planners do, both sides may be more cautious in a crisis.

Source: original release

What to watch

• Pentagon budget requests for undersea warfare, ASW aviation, and unmanned maritime systems in upcoming fiscal cycles.
• Progress of China’s carrier construction program against the 2035 projection in the Defense Department’s annual China report.
• Further allied submarine and undersea-sensor cooperation among the U.S., Australia, Japan and South Korea.
• Any formal Pentagon or Indo-Pacific Command response to the CSIS recommendations.